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      中華工控網 > 工控新聞資訊 > 2022年全球制造業產值將達44.5萬億美元

      Global Manufacturing Production Value to Hit $44.5 Trillion in 2022

      New research from Interact Analysis projects that total manufacturing industry output will grow by 4% in 2022, then decline by $0.2 trillion in 2023, before rising again in 2024 and 2025.

      來自Interact Analysis的新研究預測,2022年制造業總產值將增長4%,然后在2023年下降0.2萬億美元,但2024年和2025年再次上升。

      The new research profiles Russia and Ukraine to ascertain stress points for MIO regions. Despite a GDP of over $1.7 trillion, Russia is considered an ‘emerging economy’ due to its small manufacturing base. However, since the largest companies in Russia are energy suppliers, the country is considered an ‘energy superpower’. Escalating fuel prices, which will impact Europe far more severely than the USA, are an obvious fallout from the conflict. Ukraine on the other hand had a GDP of just over $155 billion in 2020 according to the IMF, of which just over 30% was industrial production. Ukraine produces 70% of the world’s Neon–a key input in semiconductor production–and half of Ukrainian Neon is from Odessa and Mariupol. Since both these cities are key Russian targets, we expect one fallout of the conflict to be severe increases in the price of Neon. This will be a further big problem for the already beleaguered chip industry, which will turn to cheaper suppliers in China for relief.

      The Shanghai lockdowns have also had an undoubtable impact on the manufacturing industry, particularly because the city hosts a port that handles over 25% of all Chinese freight traffic. Shanghai is primarily a finance center, however if the Chinese government were to implement similar measures in one of their major manufacturing hubs, it could spell disaster for the global economy, since China accounts for 44.4% of total global production output.
      Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis said, “Automotive is particularly worthy of comment at the moment. The sector was already facing severe pressures following the pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict has made matters far worse for the industry. One of these problems is the new pressures on semiconductors, which already hit the automotive sector hard. Another is that Russia provides the majority of the world’s palladium which is used to produce catalytic converters and is now inaccessible. And yet another problem is that Ukraine is a key manufacturer of components for Western Europe’s automotive industry, particularly wire harnesses, supplies of which are now intermittent. As a result of all this, we predict minimal growth for automotive of 2.8% in 2022.”

      Interact Analysis首席執行官Adrian Lloyd表示:“汽車行業目前尤其值得一說。疫情之后,該行業已經面臨嚴重壓力,而烏克蘭沖突讓情況變得更加糟糕。其中一個問題是半導體面臨的新壓力,這已經對汽車行業造成了沉重打擊。另一個原因是,俄羅斯提供了全球大部分用于生產催化轉化器的鈀,現在已經無法獲得。還有一個問題是,烏克蘭是西歐汽車工業零部件的主要生產國,尤其是線束,現在供應時斷時續。因此,我們預測2022年汽車行業的最低增長率為2.8%。”



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